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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  January 5, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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stocks that could theoretically get you to dow 30k. >> unstoppable the dynamic, last year's winners doing great and last year's laggards picking up. >> we'll have ces to talk about next week and a week from today bank earnings begin so buckle up have a good weekend, everyone. let's get to scott wapner and "the half. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner our top trade, rally on with stocks on pace for their best week in more than a year is it time to get even more bullish? with us for the hour today, josh brown, jim lebenthal, steve weiss along with jon najarian and we do begin with the markets. stocks once again making new record highs so, steve, answer the question i asked right at the top. is it time to get even more bullish on this market >> i don't know. it's a tough time to start getting in it's a tough time to real increase your positions dramatically but i do think it goes higher.
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that's just because it is seems unnatural. every day it's up 1%, half a percent, not used to seeing that without any correction overall if you look at the end game and where you're going to be, the market will be higher 10% yesterday. i agree. there's too many positive tailwinds for it to end here. >> gary cohn in an interview today said the following i think the stock market and some other pretty famous investors over the last 24 to 48 hours have agreed with us, that the stock market is not expensive right now. who do you think he was referenceing >> warren buffett. i don't think he was talking -- and david stepper. >> his former colleague. >> buffet came out and said that, too. >> buffet has $120 billion in cash no way he thinks the market is cheap, no chance. >> i don't think -- >> no chance. >> i don't think anybody is saying this is bubble territory, definitely not hearing that. we can make the argument that we're maybe above fair value certainly not cheap, but first off bull markets don't die because of valuation, and even if they did, we're just not at a bubble territory where you've
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got, you know, to run screaming for the hills. >> here's what tepper told me yesterday, by the way, in case you missed t.explain to me where the market is rich it's not richard with the tax thinging that changed earnings projections. with earnings forecasts going up and interest rates where they are, how is this market expensive? i don't see the overvaluation. world growth is higher there he's no inflation. the market coming into this year doesn't look rich. in fact, it almost looks as cheap as coming into last year the market can't go down until the bond market gets hit it's amazing where interest rates are. >> so on that note, perspective matters. i mean, we just had a year in which the s&p 500 was up somewhere over 20% when you include dividends, so if we get a modest 6% to 7% increase this year in the s&p 500, that's going to feel like a failure that's going to feel like, hey, maybe the market was overvalued when realistically that's an okay return. i think perspective in that -- in that regard matters, but going down from here is not going to happen unless one of two things happen. either profit growth disappoints or you get some sign of economic
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malaise in the developed markets and frankly there's no sign of either of those happening. >> if you have, okay, growth -- growth is better, right, earnings projections are going up interest rates haven't budged, so there's a lot to make of what tepper tells us. earnings are up a lot, and you've -- rates haven't done anything. >> the one thing on interest rates that we've got to be careful, if you look at the ten-year yield, that's the bellwether obviously it's had a ceiling over the last year and a half of 2.60% t.tends when it breaks the ceiling to go shooting through it so that's what i think you've got to be careful. no longer at 2.15, we're at 2.45, upward pressure and above 2.50 the past couple of weeks. if it breaks 2.60 it could shoot higher to the 3% range and that would be troubling. >> josh? >> one of the mistakes that people are making is looking at -- looking at like consensus like bullishness and bearishness and maybe telling a story that runs contra to what people are
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actually doing, and i've always been taught to watch people do and not what they say, so i'm paying much less attention to commentary or rationalization of record high pe multiples in certain areas of the market that we're seeing and i'm looking at what people are doing. this is clearly a mega risk-on week to start the year off with. no matter what the strategists say or, you know, you cannot deny netflix up 8% on the week. semiconductors up 5.5%, apple at the top of its range, microsoft new high. >> to your point, and sorry to interrupt you. this is the best start of the year for the dow and nasdaq since '06. >> take a look at emerging markets up 4% in five days to start the year no reason, they just are and you look at xlb and xle, materials and oil, two sectors that didn't do a lot and now they are joining the party. you really have to look hard to find a style, a sector, an
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industry group that's not working this week. the only exception to this rally that you can find are the rate-sensitive stuff tlt down 1%, material consumer staples are flattish, and then you take a look at real estate down a couple of percent, and, of course, utilities had a tough week but that's really it everything else has gone straight up. >> this market could still catch people, doc, offsides of not being bullish enough. >> right. >> in their positioning. >> right bullard said that today. bullard is a non-voter but, you know, and he is a dove, i'll grant you that, so if you're a bear and want to push back against that go ahead, but he said these tax cuts are going to drive growth you've go the china. right now they are saying they are likely to stay stead we that 6.5% gdp growth projection those are both bullish things. i mean, the fact that i believe mr. bullard is right about -- that the tax cuts are going to spur more growth here in the united states and then the second biggest market on earth,
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china, is going to be, you know, if they are growing at 6.5%, judge, there's an awful lot of stuff coming from us to them and not just them to us. >> if i say you, okay, growth is up, earnings are up, rates are low and buyback monster which i think will happen this year. >> which has been absent for a while. tell me why you can't back up what we just did in the year that just closed this year >> well, i think you can, but, you know, let put it in perspective. nobody has seen this kind of environment. i said that the other day, so to say the market is expensive relative to historic measures, you're leaving out some of the most important inputs which are global growth, synchronized and rates being at a permanent low. >> sure. >> you could say okay, historically the market is extremely rich without exactly taking into account what you just said. >> but rich is a relative term, so is it extremely rich relative to perma low interest rates? now they will move up hand maybe i'm a little more aggressive in seeing that i move up.
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rick will come on and talk about three, four, maybe four hikes this year, i agree with that, but as long as it's measured it doesn't matter where are you going to put your capital if you're not putting it here >> i'll throw in another -- another leg to that stool. you know, you're talking about things that we've not seen before how about the sheer amount of dollars that are moving become and for the into and out of stocks every minute of the day there's absolutely no person attached to the minute-to-minute decisions. so much are running momentum strategies even value momentum strategies they are calling it value, but they are really doing is pushing up stocks that are already going up, and the reason why is because they are going up. >> right. >> and that is -- look, i'm just making the point it's not that that's permanent and it will last forever of course it will reverse itself the machines will turn themselves off when that trade stops working but that's a huge amount of money, bigger than we've ever seen. >> the danger point and the flash point is that you've got so much relative value trading, in addition to the momentum
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models which are driven algorithm trading so relative value. it's relative value, u.s. equities against currencies and gold and against foreign markets, et cetera, you don't know when that music stops, and when that stops the, right, it's going to reverse and go the other way so you've got to be aware of that. to me there's a lot of risk in the market i don't believe we're close. >> people will wake up when that reversal happens we'll be on the air and they will have a guest and here's why it reversed, but that's all just looking at something that happened and finding something inconvenient to attach to it so it's a narrative and a news story. the reality is those trades can unwind very quickly and there does not have to be a headline that causes it or a speech that was given. >> i wonder if you've started worrying about inflation a little too early with your tip trade towards the end of last year. >> i would say it's more of an investment than a trade. it's replacing fixed income that would otherwise be susceptible to the risk of rising rates with fixed income that would actually
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move up in lockstep with rising rates so i would hesitate to call it a tip trade. no leverage on it, not sexy, but we have to think about these things because the mandate that we invest towards is the money that people have as a need to spend a future liability, so we have clients that are terrified of inflation it absolutely has not been an issue over the last couple of years. people have become accustomed to 1.5% cpi what happens if all of a sudden it's more than 1.5% cpi and you haven't prepared a portfolio and what happened if fixed income doesn't act as the fixed off wing of your portfolio and introduces a new kind of risk we haven't seen in ten years. that's part of my job is to build durable portfolios i don't know, maybe i'm early to your point, scott, but, you know, this is what i'm here for. >> one market watcher says stocks are going higher. let bring in ed yardeni, the president of yardeni research r.ed, happy new year andwelcom back to the show. >> thanks very much.
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>> you agree with the teppers of the world and gary cohn and those who say the market is not too expensive. >> i do. i think the market is going to 3,100 for the s&p 500 by the end of the year. i have two concerns. the most likely concern in my opinion is a meltup, we get to 3100 a lot sooner than i'm anticipating because everybody just joins in the party, and this is some of a fomo market, fear of mission out. lots of people seem to be jumping in here because they did miss out and the they figure there's nothing to worry about now. the big risk eventually to the market here is inflation coming back, and i was, you know, fine tuning my analysis of the employment numbers this morning, and i didn't see wage inflation picking up, it's really remarkable so it's -- it's a nirvana scenario i don't want to jinx it by calling it that. >> ed, let me ask you about the wage inflation because the headline statistics are not actually telling the story
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when you look at the headline statistics you're looking hat collective data. >> right. >> boomers retiring at the top of the income scale. they are being replaced by people in their 20s and 30s who make considerably less. >> right. >> and when the whole thing is reported together, isn't this great, no inflation when you're actually running a company though and you're hiring people, you are seeing wage inflation, and that's not showing up in the data yet but it's definitely becoming a cost. >> not so fast i'm 68 and i'm still working for a living. >> i know you are. >> and i don't want to reveal this to you, but i haven't had a pay increase in about ten years. i think -- i think a lot of the baby boomers kind of peaked out in terms of what they could make and should make maybe ten years ago, and they are doing fine i mean, i'm not complaining, but i think a lot of baby boomers are still working and they just don't expect to get pay increases because they are doing well enough. >> the biggest point you're make sounds like, ed, is the biggest fear is the lack of fear. >> we have nothing to fear but nothing to fear, as fdr once
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said, maybe he didn't say that, but, yeah. i've been -- since the beginning of 2013 i'm on record, i've been saying we have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. when we didn't get over the fiscal cliff in late 2012, the markets basically have been in fomo mood. you know, a lot of people not wanting to be out. the other way to look at this market is think of 2015 as sort of a growth recession year because of the plunge in energy prices and what that did to energy think of 2016 as a recovery year and 2017 as an expansion year and this is a bomb year. >> you know, you agree with -- with what david tepper told me, the market, i'm quoting him from yesterday. the market can't go down until the bond market gets hit do you agree with that >> well, i would say some space more differently i think that's true. i think the stock market can't go down until we see how much money pours back in here from
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repatriation i mean, we're talking about $is trillion, $2 trillion, $3 trillion poe lengthsly coming back to the u.s. and i think a lot will go into buybacks and dividends and maybe even economic growth. >> that's a very bullish scenario. >> well, how can you really be out of the market if you've got that kind of money coming in our direction? meanwhile, we'vegot the etfs attracting over $300 million, the equity etfs over the past 12 months they are chugging along at a record high. i mean, i guess if we're going have a problem, it's going to be like 1987 where the market melts up and something bad happens and we have kind of a portfolio insurance problem which would be etfs experiencing a flash crash. >> ed, appreciate your time. thanks for coming on today ed yardeni joining us. i don't know, where do you push back on that >> listen, i thinkhe makes a
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good point that we could get to euphoria talking about that last week i do think that that's the road we appear to be headed down. it appears we want to get more and more and more non- - the fifth richest person in the world invented a currency and says this is a currency and people put $202 billion into it. >> i don't think you can analogize -- >> i think that's where the risk is going on. >> is euphoria really a danger can you go from what people said is the most haiti rally ever to euphoria overnight now it feels like people are feeling so optimistic, but, you know, months ago it was oh, it's still the most hated rally ever.
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>> you still have your nay saye sayers and you always do i also think of '87 in relation to this. that summer that market was going up on a lower base, 100 points a day, 50 points a day, the dow, s&p is moving and everything felt so good and looked so good and then it came crashing down. >> and had you no chance to get out. that's the key el president. if we had down 1% day and the next day it was down 2% then some of us might say, well, at least let's sell. >> i get you, but have you -- this is not a house of cards real i guess i'm trying to say you have a foundation built on global growth, synchronized and the fact that earnings are going -- the expectations, at least, are going up. rates appear to be staying low for the foreseeable future. >> you've also shrunk the supply in the market, let's not forget that, with all the buybacks from before with the lack of ipos so it's not a typical cycle where supply keeps coming into the
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market it's going out. >> at the end of '13, in between the we had a slightly bigger rally, a 30% in large caps and it was just a tremendous year for stocks, and all of the earnings estimate going into '14 were heading higher as well. unfortunately, crude oil had a different idea that's something that really happened out of nowhere. none of the big sell side strategists had that on their radar and between '14 and 'is a you had a huge earnings recession predominantly driven by a crashing oil price and markets ended up taking a pause for i would say 18 months, and you had a lot of damage beneath surface so the s&p was the least of it. the russell was down like 30% at some point and biotechs down close to 40%, so it's not that we're looking at earnings estimates into '18 and saying, yeah, everything should be fine because you have rerngs growth things can change that you're not expecting can have a drastic impact on what expected earnings growth is. >> oil all of a sudden is going
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to have to spike. >> just be spreepd. >> a supply-demand pal. >> but you have to be prepared. >> it's been moving up measurably, and it hasn't really hit anything it's that gradual change and lock at the stocks leveraged to it they have had a great run oil, you get the geopolitical back. >> oil has done much better than the stocks. >> true, without a doubt i still think it's a damaged asset class, the energy stocks. >> i'm just pointing out that that's an event that gave us a two-year step-back in this broader bull market and it was on no one's radar so the idea that you can build a portfolio and not have something in place to protect you from exogenous events that we're not even discussing today you have to be ready for anything. >> the other question is what role should the european or international markets play in this conversation, that everybody is so optimistic and now bullish or even more so on the u.s. market in a week in which germany had a great week, japan is off to a good start, up
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4% once again asking the question should you be every overweight the u.s. or should you be overweight elsewhere >> well, this is our second year going into the new year with an overweight to international stocks worked out very well last year we did get a lot of client pushback, an i'm not talking about like a drastic overweight but enough to matter a lot of people said but the u.s. is the best, you know, the cleanest dirty shirt or whatever the expressions were people forget it's not just about what the fundamentals are, it's about what the sentiment around the fundamentals are and how much room those things have to diverge, and i think now you have a little bit more belief. you look at etf flows. you have a little bit more money coming into europe a lot that have is performance chasing. >> why wouldn't you buy the heck out of europe until draghi gives you an indication he's ready to raise rates. >> you want to be overweight international markets. don't mean you throw out the u.s. or don't have exposure
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there but if you're thinking about forward returns on a valuation basis. history says you'll get more bang for your buck if you're diversified rather than just u.s. >> well, bond yields are ron the move, albeit slightly today. let's talk about that with rick r re-iter, the global chief investment officer at blackrock. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. good to see you, scott are you amazed as tepper is about where yields are >> this is a great conversation. i agree with what david is saying there is -- rates are -- what poem don't consider is what our equities are the free cash flow discounted by the cost of financing which is the rate market we've talked about this a bunch of times on your show. there's an extraordinary amount of liquidity in the system and extraordinary demand because of demographics for assets so what you're saying are equities right or are rates right or which are wrong? the fact of the matter is there's an incredible need for assets the fed will move three, maybe
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four times next year but the pressure on rate, i think you'll hit a 3% ten-year this year, burks boy, it's not that the dramatic an influence and part of why the key cash flow in the equity market is flowing and generous the rate market will move higher but won't move that much high. the conversation around inflation, i don't know who it was on the panel that described it exactly roimpingt wages are accelerating the average hourly earnings is a poor measure because it doesn't have tips, commissions, bonuses, a compositional effect problem that's not there so wages are accelerating and inflation is moving higher, but in a world of technology, inflation is not going to much that much higher or push rates that much higher. >> it was josh brown who made that brown and i'll bring him into the conversation now. josh >> rick. i'm curious. i ended up getting into a tangent on tips and i don't know what the house view is at blackrock but i'm sure we would love to hear it, both on an absolute basis and also relative to just the traditional treasury ladder or fixed income portion of a portfolio what should our viewers be
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thinking about that asset class? >> i actually thought the way you described that was exactly right as well so not to be patnizing. there is a dynamic -- you know, we think the front end of the break-even curve or tips market is priced in too cheap the back end of the break-even, so years, 30 years, it's okay, but you've been pricing in you know, we're going to run over 2% inflation but not that much higher. >> right. >> the front end of the inflation market is still in these levels that is around 160 to 175 it's going to move higher exactly as you described in a balanced portfolio, inflation is accelerating. we're closing the output gap in this country and wages, as you said, are accelerating we are as part of a portfolio it's absolutely to have break-evens or tips in the portfolio. >> you said 3% ten-year is in the card, and it sounds to me like you -- you think that it's the fed that causes that in some respects is there a chance that the fed blows it and causes rates to rise too fast?
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>> a couple of things. first of all, it is unbelievable, i mean, we see it in our flows and see it in fixed income across the world today the demand for income is so powerful i think we're going to move higher, and i think rates will move higher but it's so hard i think what drives is, scott, yes, i think the fed is on this mission and it going to move rates, and you're going to go three times next year and i think inflation accelerating will give the back end of the curve a yield paradigm is the fed going to blow it? no when you're tightening policy you're supposed to be behind the curve, react to the data and very different than when you're easing i think the fed will go three times. they have so many rules to break inflation. they will be deliberate in how they do it and if inflation accelerates faster which i don't think is going to happen or gets too much in terms of overheating they can break it pretty easily. that's the tool that's easiy for them >> you think the yield curve is going to steepen >> so i think the yield curve is hard i think owning asset on the front end of the curve today,
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all of a sudden, you think about when you said -- people were saying rates haven't moved that much we believed in the flattener for a really long time all of a sudden now you can get paid inatesitude to five years on the curve or even shorter than that where you're actually getting a nice yield in the portfolio and carries extremely well and inflation can accelerate the traditional the curve should flatten in a growing economy because the curve has flattened so much at this point. we like assets on the curve so you don't take as much interest rate exposure. >> thanks for joining you go >> thank you. netflix is near the highs of the day today. julia boorstin has that story for us julia? >> reporter: hey, scott. netflix shares moving higher on news of more content coming to the platform shares up more than 1% and up 2% from today's low netflix announcing david letterman's new series "my next guest" needs no introduction which will debut on january 12th with president barack obama. other guests include jay-z and george clooney also announcing this morning
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that filmmaker matt reefs known as director of two "planet of the apes" move sis signing an exclusive multi-year deal with the company. this as netflix goes into the golden globes with a record 12 nominations for the studios. scott, back over to you. >> julia, thank. we haven't, doc, talked about this stock very much at the start of this year >> yeah, aggressively buying calls. >> and one reminder why we should. >> you know, getting letterman on there, getting any big name that people might want to wamp, especially win the views with the president obama and george clooney and so forth, that's big. whether or not that's -- >> i think it's rallying on "peaky blinder season 4. >> you've reminded people why they subscribe because they did so because of contempt you can't find anywhere else and you entice people who haven't subscribed yet to jump on board for those sorts of events. >> they are the clear leader in contempt we subscribe to other services, hulu and amazon prime we ge you're always going back tone
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flicks because the content is so robust the only thing i would question is i just don't see this company getting acquired market company is 90 billion when it was 50 billion then maybe apple would have dumped. 90 billion and then have you to pay a premium. >> 20% on that, lol. >> it's ridiculous who would want to do it. >> they would have to stumble really badly and have a huge correction in the stock. >> right. >> and maybe that's what feeds the bullishness when you think about people like, all right, if they have a few bad quarters in a row they will just get bought so what's my risk here >> and what also feeds it is their ability to increase prices without worrying they will lose consumers. six months ago they put the price increase on there. >> they can cut the number of people under a one-subscriber model instead of from five. >> i'm using yours, for example. >> i'm kind of ticked about it. >> you're on his, too. >> good stuff.
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good start as well here's whales is coming up on "the halftime report." >> the sports trade. another upgrade after nike and dick's gets some wall street love that's next. plus, it's perhaps the most some-moving conference of the year we'll get you ahead of the trade as the jpmorgan health care confab gets set to begin. before the break, our data partners at kensho show after a move of 10% or for a week under armour cools off down 3% on average a week later. for more go to "the halftime report" with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes
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foot locker shares have surged more than 30% over the past three month alone and now buckingham research sees no end in sight to that rally the first just upgraded those shares to a buy calling for another 22% upside it's our call of the day guys, it seems like the sports trade is certainly coming back two upgrades for nike, dick's sporting goods got a positive note hand now you have foot locker is this trade back on >> i'm not too thrilled about this i am more excited about the other names you mentioned, dick's and nike, but when you have a history in this name as footlocker does, it's perennially cheap, and, yes, it has recovered off of a disaster earlier in the middle of last year, but there's no indication
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that they have got some new competitive mode yes, the analysts point out that there are one of nike's strategic distributors, that's great, but i don't think there's anything that changes the sentiment on this stock. >> why do you need a competitive moat to a foot lochner. >> that's my point there is no competitive moat, there's dick's and amazon and all sorts of online opportunities which is exactly the point. that's why it trades alow teen multiple. >> the fall on this stock -- >> i'm questioning your thooet thesis i'm not back it up, jimmy. >> ask your question again, scotty, because i thought i answered your question. >> asking if you paid attention again. >> i'm suggesting why doesn't footlocker need to have a competitive moat >> because if you're going to -- because if you are going to get any premium multiple which this stock has never enjoyed. consider nicking for a second. mid-20s multiple, footlocker's multiple is 13 footlocker would love to have nike's multiple but no way they will get with the competition.
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>> the athletic and shoe trade and nike trade is back on, how is that not beneficial for footlocker >> wait a second very big, if and the analyst in his note does point that out what he knows is going to happen is there's repatriation of foreign dollars which he thinks will go into buybacks. there's a supposition yet to be proved. >> you're doubting nike. >> i'm doubting the north american -- >> three-quarters of nike's growth isn't nationally. >> yeah, that's my point footlocker is far more of a domestic company, far more, and the north american sneaker market ain't that great. the analysts are supposing it's going to get better. maybe it does. who knows. >> yeah. one of the things that the analyst sights over at buckingham is the repatriation -- not the repatriation, i'm sorry, but the tax reform because of the amount of cash held here, to your point, jim and he says cleaner inventory, great. i can't get excited about these.
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>> he says that about every stock. >> and in the jobs report today, the retail was the weakest part of that jobs report. i mean, it was a jobs report that missed and came in at 148 instead of 190 something and retail was the main area so i don't know why all of a sudden you get all bowled up about sports. >> it's a low-risk trade for the analysts hoping to catch some tailwind from nike and dick's what's happening there what can i do there? >> if i said you had to choose between footlocker and dick's and both the same forward pe, you would say what >> i wouldn't do either. >> i would say dick's. >> me, too, because more complete for the shop their goes in there footlocker is almost exclusively the shoes and some of the warmups and things like that but you won't get shoulder pads. >> dick's is more of a destination place and footlocker is mall-based. >> i would drink hemlock. >> all right >> najarians are eyeing some unusual options activity again and it's in a big-name tech stock and a defense name as
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well we'll see how the stocks are likely to move, according to dr. j. when "the halftime report" comes right back up to the 's the gig-speed network from comcast business gives you more. with speeds up to 20 times faster than the average. that means powering more devices, more video conferencing, and more downloads in seconds, not minutes. get fast internet and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more per month. comcast is building america's largest gig-speed network to give small businesses more. call 1-800-501-6000 today.
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hello, everyone. welcome back to "the halftime report
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go the "i'm sue herera here's what's happening at this hour north and south korea have agreed to hold their first talks in more than two years next week the two sides will discuss how to cooperate on next month's winter olympics and how to improve overall ties airports in the northeast, including in new york and boston, are back online after yesterday's storm forced the cancellation of thousands of flights. and the east coast freeze hasn't been good for the iguanas in florida the below 40-degree temperatures are immobilizing them and causing them to fall from their perches in trees however, they are okay we'll take game show hosts who are recovering, please "jeopardy!" host alex trebek is recovering from surgery to remove blood clots from his brain. he said in a video his prognosis is excellent and expects to be back soon. and alex, if you're watching, we send you all of our very best wishes for a speedy recovery scott, you're up to day.
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i'll send it back to you. >> sue, thank you so much. sue herera jon najarian is at the telestrator for some unusual activity doc, you're looking at a defense name you're up first. >> textron, txt. saw some big activity in the name, jumping, and because of that the stock is up 56 cents. not big, but you look over basically here in november, they were talking about a potential takeover is that what's brewing here? don't know, but they came scrambling in to buy calls i bought the calls as well i'll probably be in them two weeks, maybe a little less maybe only ten days, by like it. i like textron also because of the tax play that goes on with this defense stock. >> all right pete what, have you got for us >> well, scott, you know, it's interesting because apple had a lot of news really in the last week and a half, two weeks or so we watched the stock actually go down from that upper 170s and got underneath $170 a share, but today very, very active as the stock is you are abouting back up trading at 174.
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very heavy buying of next week's expiring 175 calls paying 84 cents all the way up to $1.15 for the calls 19,000 of those were bought. this is a one-week out trade, but it's interesting to see the volumes. by the way, volumes in the option market have been spectacular so far in the beginning part of 2018 we've had two different days already over 2 is million contracts trading, scott, which is about 28% above what was last year's yearly daily average, so pretty aggressive. it's been aggressive today this apple paper was huge. i'm in that. i'm already in the stock, as you know, but i'll be in the options at least this week, and we'll see exactly what happens stock has already pushed towards that 175 level but around is 74 is when they started buying. >> pete, have a good weekend. >> looks like you're looking in a funhouse mirror. >> does kind of look like that. >> quite a segment we've just done. >> pete making the effort for about two minutes. nice job, pete. >> good job, pete.
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>> left it on the field, judge. all right. the traders' biggest wins and losses in the fourth quarter are coming up next first though, brian sullivan has a look at what's coming up next on "power lunch" to minutes from now. bri? >> scott, i would like name that najarian for 600, please coming up on "power lunch," the dow powers higher once again. michael wolff's new boar, might have heard about it, detail the chaos inside the white house and creedsing a lot of buds, but we have the answer to the question of is the end of a major force the franchise collapsing and how singer melissa etheridge veme'sewing back against the gornnt n pot policies. all of that coming up on "power lunch," but more "halftime" right after this you always pay
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i think cisco systems is the one to be in and will do exactly what intel has done, gm, microsoft. good dividend yield. >> talked about it for many times. here you're buying companies with legit products and revenue streams and consolidating your power there. >> this is a stock on the vernal of a breakout. i think it's the best stock in the dow right now, and i would be a buyer here. >> all right
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first quarter is under way as you know we're taking a look back at some of the traders' most memorable and forgettable fourth-quarter calls. jimmy, starting with you sysco up 13% since that call in october. >> a nice stock and just keeps growing and the model here to look after is microsoft over the last four years or so which just every year jugs higher hand higher this sill is a very attractivelily priced stock, 15 times earnings and 40 billion of cash and cash is key because instead of making these acquisitions they do the little tuck-in acquisitions that help them get out of the software and hardware space. >> cavium is up 23%. >> it got taken out. company was acquired and a partial stock deal so it keeps moving up. it's been a great story. it's one of those where you bought -- products were not selling because they were transitioning to a new product cycle so the street had it completely wrong and management started buying stock at 51 and i
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started buying it in the 40s i would like a thousand of those. >> josh, walmart, 25% gain since october the 9th. >> yeah, i meaning look. i think this is one of those situations where everyone knows walmart. it's very popular company in the country, and it's a very large stock. so -- when you look at technicals you can literally see the moment where the sentiment en masse is changing for everyone involved in it. the sellers disappear and new buyers come out of woodwork so instead of just focusing 100% on your energy and trying to understand is it good or is it bad, just pay attention to price sometimes and you see that infliction point happening in what people are actually doing, not what they are saying a lot of upgrades have come since then is the point but the market had it right first, and i think there are a lot of those situations out there. >> so let's talk about some of those that didn't work out, at least not yet. jimmy, you said not to buy viacom on november 17th.
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>> would you like to apologize to america >> the stock is up -- >> apologize >> he bought bitcoin. >> i'm going to applogize. >> bought ripple instead. >> the wine. look i've got to tell you on this space i find is intriguing and viacom is in there along with discovery and cbs. clearly there's consolidation going on we've seen it with disney and fox. i'm not negative on the stock anymore. >> western dig what do you do with it now-wises? >> i think it downgraded this week. >> it did by bmo and it rallied off the lows look, this is -- i've actually made money on this stock, the reason being when it got crushed by morgan stanley and some issues were going wrong with the agreement with attorney barks that's when i was losing until then, but then i loaded up and i think i came on air and saidterm i've paring out of it over here, and i pared out of a little micron as well these are cyclical stocks and
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commodity stocks and you should get commodity multiples. >> coming up next, the blitz we're back in two minutes.
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all right. we're back it's time for the blitz. constellation brands they beat earnings estimates and a miss on revenue is sending that stock lower doc, you had unusual activity this week in this. >> i did flushed it on this, and it was because, judge, they say the
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wine sales aren't as great great sales on the beer side, not on the wine side, so this was a loser. closed it out. i still like it. $3 billion buyback they announced today, but it's down 5 bucks, it's over. >> josh, lowe's gets upgraded at barclays to overweight. >> a little late the stock broke out pretty obviously in the middle of december has not looked back yet. if i were not in it and wanted an entry, i would hope that maybe you get a light pullback back to the retest of the breakout level i don't know how chase this thing here it's up so big so quickly so i would probably avoid if i weren't already in it. >>-wises, morgan stanley likes c cvs even more. weight it and put it back to equal. >> we don't know if the transaction with aetna is going to go through, but i guess they are thinking it l.look at it as minimal downside to. me it makes sense where they get aetna. where i would worry is
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amerisource bergen they don't need to bear out. >> jimmy, ea. >> act vision has done pretty well and the two should season when you look at the games, electronic arts has, particularly the sports, fifa, madden, as well as the "star wars" franchise, this stock is poised to break out from here, i really like it. okay, coming up, a conference that moves stocks like no other is about to begin. meg tirrell will be there. she gets ahead of the trade on jp morgan's health care conference next right here on "halftime.
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all right. welcome back to "halftime. jp morgan health care conference kicking off monday me meg tirrell wilt be there, she joins us been she his to the airport. >> this is a huge conference, really setting the stage, taking the temperature of investors in health care for the year ahead this is a huge conference for deals, off over the weekend, or monday morning, if the companies can keep the deals under wraps that long. you see a lot of big deal announcements. in previous years we've seen shire make two big acquisitions, $5 billion acquisition in 2015 of course, last year, takeda bought ariad for $5 billion. people wonder if the tax overhaul has had time to be digested by the big companies in order to pull the trigger next week on a big deal
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we'll be watching that company also do a lot of guidance and early reporting of q4 results, there we'll be watching celgreen, always the first company to kick off this conference, of course, they had a really tough fourth quarter. that's going to be a huge one to watch. regeneron, vertex, acorda. last year, it was that week that president trump -- president-elect at the time, made those comments. listen to this >> our drug industry has been di disastrous, they're leaving left and right. day supply our drugs but don't make them here they're getting away with murder pharma, pharma has a lot of lobbies. a lot of lobbyists a lot of power and there's very little bidding on drugs we're the largest buyer of drugs in the world, and yet we don't bid properly we're going to start bidding and we're going to save billions of dollars over a period of time. >> so those comments were made on the wednesday of that conference, 9,000 health care
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investors all together watching televisions driving the ibb down 3% intraday on those comments. >> yeah, i'll openton to the floor, i mean, weiss, you, i'm sure, have many opinions on these stocks. >> i do. it's always interesting conference i've been there. i think what's most interesting, though, you'll see the biggest moves, are when they talk about their pipelines and they'll reveal some data that they have. i think that, you know, it's -- jimmy and i disagree on his, but pricing is an issue, and the drug companies still haven't reined it in so potentially could see another trump announcement, he's so geared into the market so maybe pharma will have an announcement you know, i don't know about it. >> can you imagine you had money invested with someone that's, like, oh, i sold all your drug stocks, why? trump made some comment on tv. like, could you even imagine the people that were ksh. >> it's a buy. there still is no mechanism for them to regulate pricing other than jawboning it.
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>> i want to point this out, i still agree, i think every election cycle this is going to come up, every election cycle it's going to -- >> clinton did it. >> exactly exactly. >> you can't tell me -- you're not going to say these are uninvestable because of that, are you? >> no. thank you. i do want to say this. you know, a lot of these large biotech companies are now attractively priced. this isn't five years ago where we're talking about valuation -- >> 50, 75, 100 times multiples these are, like, 18 to 25 times multiples. >> i like celgene. i dmoeon't know what happens wi this quarter but i like it. >> you have ceos you want to tell us about. >> you were talking about biotechs that are fairly valued potentially. people say there are a lot of questions for the growth of that business they'll be first on with us monday morning. >> home run. rals tve see you on the show next week. meg tirrell joining us final trades are next. like their car or home computer, to help them do their work. but they might not know that those items may need special insurance
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we cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. okay, we're back we'll do final trades in a second we have a couple trades, though, being made on the desk jim, you sold trinity. >> yeah, it's been a great stock, scott it was time to ring the cash register doubled in two years the credsecret, there was a law against them two years ago that got overturned in october as it should have. multi-hundred million dollar lawsuit. once that got overtune rned, nothing to stay -- >> took the money and ran. weiss, jec is a new buy. >> they preannounce epreannounc
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acquisition that they closed it. it's geared to infrastructure. that's why i like the infrastructure dialogues are going to continue to reresonate. >> let's do final trades >> zayo, z-a-y-o, brought it today. >> josh? >> google, still wrong. >> we didn't coordinate on this. google, still long. >> isug, domestic russell 3000. >> have a good weekend "power" starts now. ooi'm melissa lee. hiring slows but hiring on the rise despite the weaker than expected data the stock market pushing to new highs again. which stocks will drive the next leg of the rally and is there too much yeuphoria on the street plus fire, fury and fallout. the new book detailing the chaos inside the trump white house, getting a whole blot lot of attn and heat as well what's true, what's not? we'll talk to an insider with firsthand knowledge of what really went down "power lunch" starts right now


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